CF Dictionary A reference for Critical Fallibilism

CF Dictionary · Decision Making

Pass / Fail

The binary evaluation of a factor at a breakpoint. CF's standard factor-level judgement.

Pass/fail is the binary evaluation of a factor at its breakpoint: the option either meets the threshold or it doesn't.

Pass/fail is CF's default for factor evaluation

  • It's binary. Pass or fail, no in-between.
  • It's breakpoint-based. The breakpoint defines what "pass" means.
  • It composes with "and". All factors pass → option passes.

Why pass/fail works

  • No dimension-crossing. You don't try to add price + cuteness.
  • No weighting. All factors are equally required to pass.
  • Clear success criterion. You know when you're done.

When pass/fail is the wrong tool

  • When margins of error are larger than the difference between options.
  • When the breakpoint itself is fuzzy.
  • When the goal is to maximise something rather than meet a threshold. (CF argues that maximising is usually less useful than thresholding.)

CF's multi-factor recipe

For each factor:

  1. Define the breakpoint.
  2. Evaluate each option: pass or fail.
  3. Apply pass/fail: usually "all pass = pass".

"If you multiply pass/fail factors, it's the same as using 'and' on them. The result is 1 (pass) if every factor works and 0 (fail) otherwise." — criticalfallibilism.com