CF Dictionary A reference for Critical Fallibilism

CF Dictionary · Error Correction & Learning

Conjectures and Refutations

Popper's name for the evolutionary method: conjecture boldly, refute rigorously. CF adopts this as its engine.

Conjectures and refutations is Popper's term for the evolutionary method of knowledge growth. CF adopts this as its engine.

"Knowledge is created by an evolutionary process of guesses and criticism. We make progress by brainstorming and using critical arguments to correct our mistakes."

The structure

  1. Conjecture. Propose an idea boldly — a guess, a hypothesis, a plan.
  2. Test. Try to refute it with the strongest criticism you can.
  3. Refute or tentatively accept. If refuted, fix. If not, hold open.
  4. Repeat. Each round produces better ideas.

Why "conjectures" not "theories"

The word conjecture signals fallibilism: every claim is a guess. This avoids the trap of treating well-supported ideas as certain.

Why "refutations" not "verifications"

Refutation is decisive; verification is not. CF follows CR in treating refutation as the only kind of progress signal that counts.

Brainstorming vs criticising

Conjectures come from brainstorming — relaxed, divergent thinking. Refutations come from critical review — strict, convergent thinking. CF recommends separating these phases.

"We brainstorm unjustified guesses and we improve them with negative, critical arguments." — criticalfallibilism.com