CF Dictionary · Knowledge & Epistemology
Hypothesis
A testable guess. CF treats hypotheses as conjectures to be refuted, not confirmed.
Also: conjecture
A hypothesis is a testable guess about how something works. "All swans are white" is a hypothesis. "Gravity is caused by mass curving spacetime" is a hypothesis.
CF, with CR, treats hypotheses as conjectures — guesses open to refutation. The standard of a hypothesis is not whether it's been confirmed, but whether it can be tested.
What makes a good hypothesis
- Falsifiable — there's some observation that would refute it.
- Specific — not so vague that any observation fits.
- Connected — relates to other knowledge via explanation.
- Testable now — not forever deferred to a future test we can imagine but not design.
What a hypothesis is not
- Not a fact.
- Not a belief you must hold.
- Not immune to criticism.
"Hypotheses which disagree with experiment are wrong. (Unless you can find a mistake in the experiment or the analysis of it.)" — criticalfallibilism.com