CF Dictionary · Decision Making
Most Factors Aren't Borderline
CF's empirical observation: most factors are obviously sufficient or obviously insufficient. Only borderline factors deserve attention.
Most factors aren't borderline is CF's empirical observation about real decisions: of the many factors you could consider, very few are close to the breakpoint. Most are obviously sufficient or obviously insufficient.
What this means
- Don't spend attention on irrelevant factors. They're obviously fine.
- Don't give up on impossible factors. They're obviously insufficient.
- Focus on constraints. Those are the borderline factors.
- Skip easy and impossible projects. Work on the maybes.
The three classes
| Class | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Easy | Way above breakpoint | Do it, don't even notice |
| Borderline (constraint) | Near breakpoint | Focus attention here |
| Impossible | Way below breakpoint | Skip it |
Why this is unintuitive
We focus on borderline cases by default, because they're where decisions actually matter. But the number of borderline factors is small. Most "factors" are easy or impossible.
"Most factors are irrelevant. Of the relevant factors, most are not close calls. They aren't borderline. There's way more than needed or way too little."
How to use it
- List candidate factors.
- Quickly classify each as easy / borderline / impossible.
- Focus on the borderline.
- For borderline factors, find the breakpoint and apply pass-fail.
"Most factors either fail by a lot or aren't even close to failing. This is unintuitive due to the factors we're accustomed to paying attention to." — criticalfallibilism.com